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第516章 番外篇:可以抄底了么(2)(1 / 2)

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营商环境恶化和大A股的走势有关系么?当然有关系,而且关系很大!以前经济低迷是个抄底的机会,因为大家信心还在;现在经济低迷没有人敢炒底了,大家都没有信心,这就是因为营商环境恶化的后果。看看东北,国家给了多少扶持政策,怎么就起不来?就那种雁过拔毛的营商环境,如果没有过硬的关系支撑,谁敢往里跳呀!

如果仅仅是因为经济运行周期的缘故造成经济低迷,那么在政策刺激下,经济很容易就会复苏,可营商环境恶化,不管怎么刺激,商业从业者都心怀坦克,都没有信心,甚至没有安全感,故而不敢投资,不敢扩大再生产,甚至会不断收缩,这就会造成恶性循环。

大A股有五千多只股票,真正的有话语权的央企其实就几十家,然后加些垄断性的国企和独角兽私企,估计五百家不到吧;这些企业影响力很大体量够大话语权也很多小鬼不敢惹,基本不会受到营商环境恶化影响,甚至会因为营商环境的恶化带来更多做强做大的机会。其它的4000多家企业很多都没有强大后台,没有码头可靠,很容易成为各路小鬼权力寻租的靶子。最明显的例子就是宁波一家化工上市企业和湖北一家豆奶被要求补税的例子,税务倒查三十年,没有几家企业挺的住的,这还是曝光的明着来的,没有曝光的暗着来的又有多少?

营商环境是怎么恶化的?上一章分析了几个大的因素,老龄化和机构臃肿造成企业负担过重,政府抽血过多。这一章再说说其它因素。

一个是疫情的影响,三年疫情最大的问题就是流动性危机,人口没有流动,经济就缺乏活力,从而对消费造成致命伤害。应对的办法就是促进消费,怎么促进消费,最好的办法其实就发钱,欧美经济为什么受到疫情影响较小?一个因素就是他们封控的时间较少,其次就是他们发了钱!通过发钱一下就将消费将流动性拉起来了,所以疫情后遗症较少。中国没有发钱,封控时间又太长,很多百姓的腰包一下就掏空了,百姓都没钱了怎么消费?

第二个因素么,还是规则问题。股市对散户的规则是不公平的,同样的,就营商环境而言,规则对中小企业同样是不公平的。很明显的例子,有关部门敢对中国石油中国石化开罚单么?有关部门奈何不了央企,国企,和独角兽;可在财政吃紧的情况下,只能捡软柿子捏!另外,各种行业许可,各种政策的变幻莫测都让很多中小企业吃尽苦头。

而这和某宝的衰落是一样的,马老板为了眼前利益一味打压电商扶持商城,可马总没有搞明白的是,普通电商虽然小能贡献的利益也少,但数目众多,他们即是商家也是消费者,当流量全部往商城倾斜的时候,普通电商就只好一走了之,于是某多就趁势崛起了。

另外,电商的鲶鱼效应也让企业的盈利空间大幅缩小;电子商务对商业环境最大的危害是什么?就是价格透明化,价格透明化让客户比价成本大幅降低,以前在实体店购物,顾客一般都是货比三家,这个询价成本是很高的,耗费大半天时际也未必问出实价;网上呢,一搜索就出来几十上百家,原来花半天才问的价格,现在几十分钟就查出来了,这自然就导致企业不得不进行价格战。企业的价格战对消费者貌似是好事,消费者少花钱了么?可问题是消费者少花钱了,企业也少赚钱了,企业不赚钱怎么养人?企业不养人是不是就业就成问题了?还有一个大问题,当生产企业都绕过经销商,不让中间商赚差价,中间商少了,就业的选岗位是不是更少了?

电商的另一个危害就是加剧了资源垄断,当流量都为几个平台占据后,商户对平台的依赖只会越来越重,这种依赖会导致电商平台对普通商户的无情压榨,各种罚款各种收费层出不穷。而这会进一步加剧贫富分化,因为扛不起玩不起的小电商的很快就倒闭了,扛的起就扩大了市场份额。

所以当营商环境对中小企业不利后,中小企业就只有收缩一条路了,可中小企业担负着太多的就业,他们不灵了,就业环境就要恶化了,就业一旦恶化,消费怎么提的起来?

怎么让消费提起来呢?一方面是时候对电商加以限制了,电商再这样野蛮发展下去,对经济的危害将不可估量。另外就是要大力发展服务业!让金融发展起来,把文娱搞起来,把KTV等等搞起来,把博彩等等搞起来,放松对某些灰色行业的管制,自然会带动经济!

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