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第346章 二十日线的纠缠(1 / 2)

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2007年12月6日,星期四。

张万牛到公司后先关注新闻,先是中央召开,宏观调控成了会议的主题,中央决心防止经济增长由偏快走向过热,要防止明显的通货膨胀,要控总量,稳物价,调结构,促平衡。明年开始要实施稳健乃至从紧的货币政策。从紧的货币政策一旦登场,泛滥的流动性将得到有效遏制,大A股走牛的基础就被掏空了。

另外外围在大涨,有的券商认为4800为中期大底,大盘明年可能在4500点到7500点波动,如果再疯狂一点,再非理性一点,大盘可能会涨到点。

货币从紧了,大A的底都被掏空了,有的券商还真敢预测呀,竟然还鼓吹点,真是忽悠人不偿命呀。不过4800点有个中线反弹倒是真的,先做好这波中线反弹吧。饭要一口一口吃,路要一步一步走,明年的事明年再说。

再看技术面,大盘昨天上涨2.58%后,上证指数已经站稳五日线十日线,下面将面临二十日线的压力,而二十日线是决定中线反弹力度的关键,如果大盘指数不能有效站稳二十日线,所谓的反弹终将昙花一现。

但大盘会轻松站稳二十日线然后一路向上么?如果这么看就把股票想的太简单了,也太想当然了。无论是筑顶还是筑底,二十日线都不会一蹴而就,而是必须有一波纠缠;筑顶必然有一波有效跌穿二十日线后再有效上穿二十日线的过程,这个过程就是构建中枢的过程,也可以称为构建顶背离的过程,同样的,构筑底部也有这样一个过程,上穿二十日线后会有个跌破二十日线的回踩确认过程。因此,指数上穿二十日线后的短线卖点是个卖出机会,是可以清仓等待回踩确认的买入机会的。

郑州煤电近来股价逐步抬高,股价也经过了上穿二十日线后回踩确认的过程,该股有均线多头排列的趋势,因此该股靠近二十日线就可以大胆加入中线仓位,靠近五日线则可以买入短线仓位。恒源煤电和郑州煤电类似,操作几乎可以相同。

开盘后,郑州煤电高开后稍微回落就快速拉升,股价冲到14.10后遇阻回落,10点左右股价砸到13.96附近,略微盘整后再度上冲,10点40分左右股价冲到14.20后遇阻回落,从这两个波段来看,郑州煤电明显走的是震荡上行趋势,股价稍微回落后是否还要继续上行?可事与愿愿,股价没有在黄线附近止跌,而是快速下杀,一度砸到昨天收盘价格,上午收盘前略有反弹。

郑州煤电12.06

恒源煤电高开后略微上冲就快速回落,接近昨天收盘价后开始震荡走高,10点40分左右股价冲到44.68,之后就快速回落,从最高价回落了近两个点到上午收盘。

恒源煤电12.06

大盘高开后走的也是震荡下行趋势,今天看来受到利空的影响甚大,货币从紧的大棒一旦落下,股市必然走低。

上证指数12.06

下午,郑州煤电依然震荡下行,股价全天跌近一个点,只可惜短线没有企稳信号,股价虽然靠近五日线,但下午的超短张万牛是不想参与的,因为大概率是没法赚钱出来,因此决定等明天的低点再介入不晚。

恒源煤电下午走的也是震荡下行趋势,不过跌幅有限,全天仍然略微上涨,也没有出现止跌迹象。大盘最低砸到4995点后开始反抽,全天虽然收跌,但基本和昨天收盘价格持平。

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